Even with the current drive to renewables, CO2 emissions are expected to grow till 2050, U.S.

Even with the current drive to renewables, CO2 emissions are expected to grow till 2050, U.S.

Key Points:

  • According to a new estimate released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration, worldwide energy consumption would climb by about 50% between 2020 and 2050 if no significant improvements in policy or technology are made.
  • Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise until 2050 as a result of economic and population expansion, according to the analysis.
  • In the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, the number of internal combustion engine cars is predicted to peak in 2023. The internal combustion engine market is predicted to reach its peak in 2038 globally.

Even with the current push toward more renewable energy sources, global carbon emissions will continue to rise until 2050 unless the significant policy or technological developments occur between now and then.

The US Energy Information Administration, a section of the federal US Department of Energy that studies and exchanges data, released a new study on Wednesday. The EIA forecasts future energy trends based on current laws and regulations for the study. This assumption, as well as the data, highlight the need for policy reforms and new technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which are a major contributor to climate change.

“We forecast increasing energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2050, even with an increase in renewable energy, without significant policy reforms or technical breakthroughs,” said Stephen Nalley, the EIA’s Acting Administrator, in a written statement.

What do reports say?

Economic and population growth will fuel a 50% increase in global energy demand between 2020 and 2050, assuming current trends. Renewable energy, such as wind and solar, is expected to expand the most among energy sources until 2050, according to the report.

“The global desire to produce more electricity from renewables while also increasing electric grid stability,” Nalley added, “may encourage additional battery storage expansion on a global scale.” However, although renewables will increase at the quickest rate, liquid fuels will continue to be the dominant source of energy, owing to the transportation and industrial sectors. (All petroleum, including crude oil and petroleum refining products, natural gas liquids, biofuels, and liquids obtained from other hydrocarbon sources, such as coal to liquids and gas to liquids, are referred to as liquid fuels.) Liquefied natural gas and liquid hydrogen are not included in this category of liquid fuels.)

“Given their significant increase in energy consumption, Asia’s fast-growing economies may come together to become the world’s top importer of natural gas and crude oil by 2050,” Nalley added. The demand for and use of energy in Asia’s non-OECD countries will exceed their ability to produce. According to the EIA, this will lead to an increase in crude oil and finished petroleum product imports from the Middle East.

According to the analysis, non-OECD Asian countries would be the main importers of natural gas, while Russia will be the largest exporter. Electric vehicle sales are predicted to increase through 2050, whereas the number of internal combustion engine cars is expected to peak in 2023 in OECD countries, according to the analysis. The internal combustion engine market is predicted to reach its peak in 2038 globally.

 

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